Being Talked into It

It has taken some time to recover from the first day of the draft, and that has nothing to do with this. Possibly the nicest part of the Raiders' sensible offseason had been the lack of negative attention from the media. Poof.

I was also personally disappointed that I had both guessed wrong and argued wrong, not that I expected any different. But in that argument I suggested that the Raiders might change their ways and trade down. I'm now convinced that their reaches, despite being highly stereotypical, in fact do signify a change in their ways. I argued that the Raiders had not reached with any of their top ten picks in recent years. Huff? Not a reach. Gallery? Not a reach. JaMarcus? McFadden? Randy Moss? Not reaches.

Yet the Raiders have been burned. So this year it was pundits be damned, we will target guys we want. Heyward-Bey should go at #25? Too bad, we don't have the 25th pick, we have the 7th.

So I've talked myself into it. We won't know the results for several years. But the real shift going on with the Raiders is beginning to show after the first day of minicamp. Cable is assembling a team of character guys. Hard workers. Phil Barber calls DHB, "Funny, down-to-earth, honest and confident without coming off as cocky." As Dave, a coworker and loyal CLOAK reader pointed out today, one would be more apt to describe the pick we were supposed to make, Michael Crabtree, as a "diva." (Great DHB quote from Barber, by the way...)

The best surprise of the day was the arrival of Fresno State Bulldog Lorenzo Neal, one of the great lead blockers in NFL history and clearly a leader figure for Cable's new look team. Jerry captures a great quote here, including this:

"It’s not just what you bring on the field but what you bring off the field, the intangibles and say, ‘Hey, look, guys, I’m going to be here on Tuesday watching film on my off day.’ It’s getting in the weight room working out, showing the guys, this is what has allowed me to play 17 years."

See for yourself. Neal's passion is tangible starting at about 1:28 of this clip from NBC Bay Area. Before they get to him, though, there are sound bites from DHB and Mike Mitchell - and of course Nnamdi - all of which have me convinced. It's still been a very good offseason.

Taking the Bait

No, I'm not terribly worked up about the Raiders' woes drafting safeties, though Derrick Gibson's longevity-to-productivity ratio must be an NFL record. But all this Darrius Heyward-Bey talk has me irritated. Come on Lombardi, "Locked in?" To me it's bizarre that Lombardi, a guy who has sat in the Raider war room, would be so bold if he's basing his prediction on a stereotype. He risks losing a lot of credibility regarding his unique Raider insight if he's wrong.

But I just don't see it happening at pick #7. There's a big difference between reaching for Carlos Francis in the fourth round - even for Fabian Washington in the mid-to-late first - than there is for late first round talent at pick #7. I don't see evidence of this behavior in the past. Despite Peter King's sad list, neither Gallery nor Huff was considered a reach at the time. Not even remotely so.

Now David White is in on the act, devoting an actual article to the subject. It reads more like a mock draft roundup than any real insight, though. And it's worth noting that in his own mock draft, White has the Raiders picking Crabtree.

With Stafford off the board, and talents Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, and Aaron Curry likely to be picked ahead of #7, there are two picks standing between the Raiders and either Crabtree or Andre Smith. I may be changing my guess after all...the winds seem to be blowing Smith up the charts, while Crabtree and his entourage may be slipping, making him seem the more possible choice.

If both are gone? I think it will be Maclin. Sure, I've heard the argument that there is too much skill overlap with Johnnie Lee, but despite learning to appreciate JLH in 2008, I'm not sold that he's destined for a starring role.

If they buck tradition, trade down, and get Heyward-Bey and another pick, fine by me. Lombardi is adamant that they won't trade down, but then again this offseason has seen a new approach in a lot of ways from the Raiders. If the new approach includes taking a big reach at #7, Al won't have Art Shell to blame if turns out to be another bad miss.

Quick update: Noticed Kawakami blogged on the subject today. He adds the not terribly surprising rumor that Burgess is being shopped - he hasn't been around, is in a contract year, and the Raiders need more picks. What if we mash all this together? Maybe the Raiders package Burgess and their second rounder to get into the late first for Heyward-Bey, after taking one of Cable's OT "Cadillacs" at #7.